Delimitation & Democracy

Extending the previous post’s rationale, Avataram performed a basic population to seat bench-marking based on 1971, 2001 and 2011 Census data. You can see the results here: Delimitation 2011[1]. It’s quite disastrous if you are a citizen of Central/North/Western India.

Basically, the states that are losing representation in relative terms happen to be: Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Maharasthra, Haryana, Gujarat and Jharkhand. In that order. These are states that the BJP is either doing well in or has a reasonable chance of doing well or will absolutely have to do well in order to get anywhere close to majority in Lok Sabha. While those that are gaining the most in relative terms happen to be: Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Andhra Pradesh. In that order. Where political presence is restricted to the INC and regional parties (Left included). The gain of 7 seats for Tamil Nadu is staggering and add to this the state’s past 20 year history of delivering decisive mandates with overwhelming majority; the skew is almost unbelievable.

A study on all discretionary projects/fund allocations and general pork of the past 20 years and Tamil Nadu’s relative share of it will be interesting.

[1] – Here is a reworked sheet with 542 constituencies as benchmark: Delimitation-2011

3 thoughts on “Delimitation & Democracy

  1. dagalti

    What is 534?
    The sheet uses 534 for the calculations Wiki says there were 518 seats in the 1971 LS and 542 in ’77.
    Did you intend to use 543?

    And I see for Jharkand etc. you managed to get district-wise data from which you have presumably aggregated. Hope other development indicators data was available too.

    //the skew is almost unbelievable.//

    Yes, this is amazing!

    The population growth standalone is itself quite interesting.
    While Kerala’s deceleration – though marked – is gradual, Delhi,Chandigarh have nosedived since 2001 as has J&K.

    But the new states Chattisgarh, Jharkand which grew around the national average for decades are now outstripping it and Uttarkand is simply off the charts! And this simply not the case in the residual parent states. So, unless I am reading this wrong, we have a distinctly worrisome post-split trend.

    Interesting posts – keep them coming.

  2. Pingback: Measuring States: Money from Delhi | Puram

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